Initial desktop scenarios
Stakeholder scenario planning has been undertaken looking at multiple sources.
The objective is to draw a top-level framework to better consider the “what ifs?” and “what next?”.
In doing this work, it is even more apparent that:
Malawi is at the wrong end of the factors that impact its economy. It is land-locked so has high transport costs and non-tariff barriers. At the best of times, it has limited access to oil, gas and fertilizer. This is being made worse by the US-Iran War.
El Nino (which is pronounced this year) has historically caused drought in the 4th quarter and 1st quarter of the following year implying that 2026 / 2027 will be challenging when even in a normal year there is nationwide malnutrition.
Scenario planning risk for Malawi is externalised.
From an intervention perspective, this opens-up a path to exploring resilience by avoiding input and resource reliance.
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